THE EFFECT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINE WAR ON FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA 2022-2024

Abstract

This study critically examines the effects of the Russian-Ukraine war on food security in Nigeria between 2022 and 2024. The conflict, which disrupted global supply chains and caused significant volatility in global commodity markets, had far-reaching consequences on developing countries like Nigeria, which rely heavily on food imports such as wheat, maize and fertilizers from the conflicting regions. The research specifically explores how these disruptions have affected the availability, accessibility, and affordability of food in Nigeria, a country already grappling with pre-existing agricultural and economic challenges. A structured questionnaire was administered to 400 respondents to gather primary data. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics to assess response patterns, while the Chi-Square (χ²) test was applied to determine the statistical significance of the relationships between global disruptions and food security indicators. The results reveal a strong statistical association (χ² = 224.33, p = 0.000) between the Russian-Ukraine conflict and key food security dimensions in Nigeria. Respondents overwhelmingly indicated that food prices have soared, access to essential food items has become more difficult, and the local food supply has been insufficient to compensate for disrupted imports. These findings corroborate recent studies by Torero (2022) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2022), which emphasize how geopolitical instability contributes to global food insecurity. The Nigerian context highlights not only the vulnerabilities within the global supply chain but also the structural weaknesses in the local agricultural sector, including inadequate investment, poor infrastructure, and over-reliance on imports. This adopted food security framework and Dependency Theory, these theories was adopted to provide more comprehensive understanding of the complex relationships between global events, food system and food security outcomes in Nigeria. The study recommends a multi-pronged policy approach aimed at enhancing food security resilience. These include investing in agricultural diversification, improving rural infrastructure, strengthening local food processing and storage systems and incentivizing sustainable farming practices. Moreover, the government should prioritize building strategic food reserves and reducing dependency on volatile international markets. These strategies will be crucial not only for mitigating the immediate effects of global disruptions but also for securing long-term food sovereignty. The implications of this study are relevant for policymakers, international development partners and stakeholders in the agricultural sector who are committed to addressing food security challenges in Nigeria and other countries facing similar vulnerabilities.