TREND ANALYSIS OF CASSAVA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA AND THAILAND

Abstract

Trend Analysis of Cassava production was carried out on Nigeria and Thailand using secondary data sourced from the publications of Food and Agriculture Organisation statistical bulletin (FAOSTAT), International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and Thailand Trade Association (TTA). The objectives of the study were to determine the trend of cassava production in both countries from 1970 – 2017, determine the projected cassava output of both countries by the year 2030; identify the common cassava varieties grown by both countries. Trend analysis and simple descriptive statistics were the analytical tools used to achieve the objectives. Result shows that while cassava production in Nigeria maintained almost the same percentage within 1970 – 1980, it witnessed a downward trend between 1980 to 1985 then maintained a steady rise until 2010 – 2012 when it nosedived but quickly picked up and witnessesd a gentle steady rise till 2017. Thailand on the other hand though far lower than Nigeria maintained a consistent rise between 1970 to 1978 when it surpassed Nigeria and dominated until 1992 when Nigeria picked up and dominated till 2017. A projection forecast of yield made using linear regression model of 1970 – 2017 shows that cassava production yield prediction for Nigeria in the year 2030 stands at 100,109,920.00 tons using the instantaneous growth rate of 4.10% while that of Thailand stands at 39,217,572.20 tons. The study further revealed common varieties of cassava grown in Nigeria to include NR8082, NR8083, TMS30572 and TME419 and those of Thailand to include Rayong 1, Rayong 5, Kasetsart 50 and Rayong 72. T-test carried out on the output of both countries during the oil boom era of 1970 -1980 shows that there was no significant statistical difference in the output of both countries however during the policy reconstruction era of Nigeria, 1986 – 2017, there was a significant difference at one percent level statistically in favour of Nigeria. The paper recommends that both countries should seek better ways of greater collaboration through the establishment of cassava farms by the Thais, in Nigeria's Free Trade Zones.